5 Things to Watch This 2016 Election Year

The first week of the New Year is the perfect time for political predictions, trend spotting and a whole host of other prognostications about the upcoming year only half of which will likely come true. However 2016 won’t be like most election years. It’s an open seat election; we’re definitely getting a new president by November unless something really strange happens. It will be the most racially diverse electorate in American history, and to top it off, there has been such sustained activism that turnout may break new records. With these trends in mind, these are five things to look out for in the 2016 election season.

Black vs. Brown in California

Who could bring Jamie Foxx, John Legend, Seth McFarlane, Sean Penn and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg to work together? Kamala Harris. Running for the senate, Harris has been dubbed the “Female Obama” by supporters. And her diverse heritage, fast track career and endorsements from celebrities, both political and otherwise, have made her a star in the state before one ballot has been cast.

Harris has shot to fame in California for being the embodiment of several political “firsts” – she’s the first woman, African American and Asian American (her mother was from India) to serve as Attorney General in California.

The seat she’s going after is being vacated by long serving, powerful Democratic Senator Diane Feinstein, who chose not to run in 2016 leaving open a California senate seat in a state that couldn’t be bluer and safer if it was surrounded by Smurfs. However Harris faces competition from Loretta Sanchez, a long term Democratic Congresswoman from Southern California. The primary in June of 2016 could test what kinds of coalitions still exist with African American and Latino voters in California and if it gets ugly could complicate Democratic chances down the ballot.

The Republican presidential primary began with enough people to field a very old, very rich and mostly white college basketball team. But as the months have gone on the field has begun to winnow (five Republicans have actually dropped out already). The primaries will likely have a much more reasonable sized group of men and women running for president. We have no idea what to expect in these primaries, which is partially why the role of women, minorities and other groups may play an incredibly important role. Perhaps Donald Trump — the frontrunner — runs away with the race, all political hell breaks loose, the Republicans are reduced to a party of angry racists and xenophobes and Hillary Clinton is dabbing in the White House in November of 2016. The more likely scenario however, is that the race is a long slog between Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and perhaps a surprise candidate. This presents an interesting situation for African American primary voters.

Over the last two election cycles Republicans have been willing to court black voters in open party primaries when the white voters are split and we may see similar strategies in 2016. Ben Carson’s campaign has been actively encouraging African American voters to vote in the GOP South Carolina Primary to bolster his chances. If the primary race drags on, we could see similar moves in swing states like Georgia, Virginia and Michigan.

Since the killing of Mike Brown and the subsequent riots in Ferguson, Mo. — a mostly black suburb with a mostly white government — the African American community has been gripped with discussions about the importance of local voter turnout. The argument is that the local city council, the district attorneys and mayor’s office are just as important to Black Lives Mattering as who was in the White House.

There are crucial mayoral races in Oakland, Austin, TX and Milwaukee, not to mention Washington, D.C. and Baltimore in 2016. The country prosecutors who failed in the George Zimmerman and Tamir Rice cases are up for re-election this year as well. While African American turnout is never a sure thing, if there were a year where national elections could bleed over into local activism and turnout and change some local lives for the better, this is the year.

Vice Presidential Lottery

The importance of the Vice Presidential pick is always overstated, except this year. With Hillary Clinton the likely Democratic nominee and a two-thirds chance that the Republicans will field a Cuban American (either Cruz or Rubio) as their nominee, the selection of the vice president as a balancing act becomes all the more important. Will candidates seek a racial balance in their nominees? Will Hillary Clinton try to shore up the Latino vote by picking one of the Castro twins (Joaquin Castro is a Democratic House member and his twin is former mayor of San Antonio and is the current Housing Secretary) as her running mate? Will Marco Rubio go the Obama / Biden route and seek an older wiser running mate? Would Ted Cruz try to pick a moderate white male as a running mate to appeal to independent voters or would he double down on his hard right positions? Would Donald Trump pick Omarosa? With African American, Latino, women and men in the potential mix for running mates 2016 could end up being the most diverse presidential tickets in American history.

There is really no way to predict how the final full year of the Obama presidency will play out. The cultural impact of this president, the policies that he may enact and the role he plays both as a motivator for voters and a catalyst for Republicans is almost immeasurable. He certainly isn’t a lame duck in the symbolic sense. Barack Obama, along with Michelle Obama’s, ability galvanize, inspire or possibly disappoint African American voter in a crucial election year will be the single most important factor in who will win the White House in 2016. If Obama can translate his organization, and enthusiasm for one last push, then the new Democratic collation he built in 2008 may last two more election cycles. If the coalition fails, or if he cannot translate passion for him into passion for Hillary, Democrats could be facing a Republican dominated House, Senate, a majority of State legislatures and, of course, the Presidency.